Early access · Watches first · Analytics only

Valuation for assets without a ticker.

ObiFID is an independent market-intelligence service that brings financial-grade analytics to luxury watches: fair value, net-of-cost returns, liquidity and risk. One search shows every listing we can see, each priced against fair value.

Try:

Live search opens with our first data release. Until then, searches show a sample result so you can see what ObiFID returns.

Sample Diver · Ref. S-100
obi:watch:type:SAMPLE-S100-BLK · steel · 41 mm
Sample data
Fair value (C2)$8.9k–$10.2k
Value zoneVALUE · 68
Time to cash~12 days
Liquidity81 / 100
Risk tierW1
Data qualityGrade B
Sentiment improving Listing velocity +12% vs 90d Auction momentum 1.08× est. Scarcity tightening Hype phase early Trend ↑ moderate
Sample price index · condition-adjusted · 36 monthsCycle: accumulation
Sample reference price index with detected peak and trough Illustrative series: the index rises to a detected valuation peak in month 9, declines through distribution and contraction to a detected trough in month 27, then turns up in accumulation. Expansion Distribution Contraction Accumulation 100 M0M18M36 Detected valuation peak (sample): month 9 Peak Detected valuation trough (sample): month 27 Trough
Marketplace discovery · Find

One search. Every listing. Priced against fair value.

Find pulls watch listings from marketplaces, dealers and auction houses into a single normalized view, then scores each one with ObiFID's valuation engine. You see the market as a buyer would, with a cost-aware valuation laid over it. You buy on the original site; ObiFID never touches the transaction.

01

Unified search

Search by brand, model or reference and resolve to one canonical watch ID, down to dial, bezel and bracelet variant.

02

Normalized listings

Listings from every connected source in one table: same currency, same condition scale, duplicates and relists merged.

03

Price vs fair value

Each ask is compared with a condition-adjusted fair-value range and shown as net edge after buying and resale costs.

04

Liquidity indicators

Sell-through, days on market and expected time to cash, so you know how quickly a watch could be sold again.

05

Sentiment overlays

Marketplace sentiment, listing velocity and auction momentum sit beside every price.

06

Trend detection

Direction and strength of the reference's price trend, with the current market-cycle phase.

07

Valuation peaks & troughs

Statistically detected turning points, flagged on the chart with the confidence behind them.

08

Analytics only

No checkout, no custody, no paid placement. Rankings can't be bought, and every listing links out to its source.

Sample results for Sample Diver · Ref. S-100. Sample data Sources are anonymized placeholders.
SourceConditionAskvs fair valueNet edge (median)GradeDays listed
Marketplace AC2 · full set$8,200−14%+$410◐ Possible bargain6Source ↗
Dealer BC1 · full set$8,650−18%+$920● High-confidence bargain3Source ↗
Auction CC3 · watch onlyEst. $7,000–8,000≈ fair○ Auction pendingSource ↗
Marketplace DC2 · no papers$10,400+9%−$1,350○ Not a bargain41Source ↗
Marketplace EUnverified$4,900−52%▲ Suspect1Source ↗

Net edge = fair value on resale − (ask + fees + tax + shipping + insurance + authentication) − resale costs. Listings that look too good to be true go through a fraud check before they are graded; in the sample, Marketplace E is held back because the seller account is new, no serial is visible and the price is far below fair value.

Market intelligence

Sentiment and trend detection, measured, not guessed.

Collector markets move on attention and scarcity. ObiFID turns both into published indicators, each with a definition, a confidence level and a record of when it fired.

Marketplace sentiment

Is demand warming or cooling?

Price cuts vs price rises on live listings, watcher and bid activity, and search and community mentions.

Listing velocity

How fast is supply arriving and clearing?

New listings and delistings per week against a 90-day baseline; sell-through rate.

Auction momentum

Are auctions beating expectations?

Hammer price against estimate, clearance rate and unsold share, over rolling windows.

Scarcity cycles

Is available supply tightening or loosening?

Active supply against historical depth, discontinuation and production events, and retail allocation signals.

Hype cycles

Is attention running ahead of price?

Acceleration in attention measured against price response, classified as early, peak, fading or dormant.

Valuation peaks & troughs

Where are the turning points?

Change-point detection with momentum divergence; flagged only above a confidence threshold.

Trend directionality

Which way, and how strongly?

Direction (↑ → ↓) and strength of the smoothed, condition-adjusted price series, with market-cycle phase.

Watches, measured like assets

The numbers a finance professional expects.

Net-of-cost returns, volatility, max drawdown, time to cash and correlation with major asset classes.

What we don't publish

Price predictions.

Signals describe the market now. No "will go up" calls, no return promises.
In development

The ObiFID Watch Index

A rules-based index of the secondary watch market, built for people who think in returns. It comes with a companion index that shows what an owner actually nets after buying and selling costs.

What it will include

• A price index and a net-of-cost return index, both with confidence bands
• Brand and category sub-indices
• Volatility, drawdown, liquidity and cycle-state readings
• A quarterly market report
• A published rulebook, with every methodology change announced

First release follows data licensing and a completed backtest. The full rulebook is published before the first release.

Read our approach →
Method

Built for imperfect data.

Collectible markets have no exchange, no standard condition grades and plenty of duplicate or misleading listings. ObiFID is designed to produce reliable numbers anyway, and to tell you plainly when it can't. More on our approach.

Modular ingestion

Each data source runs as an isolated connector with its own health checks. If one source fails, coverage and confidence drop and are flagged, but nothing else stops. Raw data is kept so fixes can be replayed across history.

Schema-agnostic normalization

Every source is mapped to one canonical model (identity, variant, condition, price, currency, fees) by configuration, not custom code. Unknown fields are preserved, never dropped.

Model-agnostic analytics

Valuation and signal models sit behind one interface and are versioned, backtested and swappable. The same snapshot and model version always give the same answer.

Multi-asset extensibility

A new asset class is a configuration pack (identifiers, attributes, sources, models), not a rebuild. Watches first; other collectibles only once their data meets the same bar.

Confidence scoring

Every value ships with a range. When direct data is thin, estimates fall back to comparable watches, and the range widens to show it. When data is too thin, ObiFID says "insufficient data" instead of guessing.

Transparent data quality

Each number carries a data-quality grade and plain-language flags, so you can see where it came from and how much weight to give it.

A–E data-quality grade THIN_DATA few recent sales LISTING_ONLY asks, no confirmed sales SINGLE_SOURCE one venue STALE no fresh data MODEL_FALLBACK estimated from comparables ENTITY_AMBIGUOUS variant unclear
Principles

Independent by design.

A valuation is only worth something if you can trust whose side it's on.

Analytics only

ObiFID does not buy, sell, broker or hold watches.

No paid placement

Rankings and valuations can't be bought. Any referral links are labeled and never affect results.

Reproducible

Every figure is timestamped and traceable to its data snapshot and model version.

Descriptive

We measure the market. We don't predict prices or tell you what to buy.

Clear about uncertainty

Every value carries a range and a data-quality grade. When data is too thin, we say so.

Who it's for

For people who treat watches like assets.

Collectors

Know what a watch is worth before you pay. Track your collection's value, liquidity and risk over time.

Dealers

Price stock against the whole market, spot sourcing opportunities and flag inventory that is aging.

Wealth, insurance & lending

Defensible, documented values for net-worth statements, replacement cover and collateral.

Early access

Be first to search the market.

Join the early-access list for the first data release, the Watch Index launch and our market notes. Tell us which watches you follow and we'll prioritize coverage.

Or email partners@obifid.com.

We'll only email you about ObiFID. Unsubscribe anytime.

Disclosures

Not investment advice. ObiFID provides market data and analytics about watches and other collectibles. It does not provide investment, legal or tax advice, does not predict prices, and does not buy, sell, broker or hold assets for anyone. Values are estimates with stated confidence ranges and can be wrong.

Sample data. Figures labeled "Sample data" on this page are illustrative and do not describe any real watch or listing.